Last update: 11/13/2020

Overview

This model simulated this election 30,000 times using an informed Bayesian prior and took into consideration the following:

Simulation Results:

Probability of victory

In all, the model simulation resulted in Kelly receiving a higher vote share than McSally just over 95% of the time.

This can be illustrated by the proportion of the blue density plot that lies above 50%.

Kelly’s exact probability of victory according to this model:

## [1] 0.9522667

Predicted vs. Actual Vote Shares:

Predicted vs. Actual Vote Share
Kelly McSally
Predicted 0.531735 0.468265
Actual 0.512000 0.488000

Summary:

Simply put, Mark Kelly underperformed - and Martha McSally overperformed - expectations in this election. While few experts felt McSally had a chance to win this election, including some pollsters that listed Kelly’s advantage at nearly 10 points coming up on election day, McSally made the race more interesting. This appears to be a pervasive narrative across the nation for Republicans in an election year that many expected to be a blue blowout.

This will be a narrative to watch closely when Kelly’s newly-won seat comes up for reelection for a full term in just two years. Democrats may have taken the White House from Trump and Republicans, but there is good reason to anticipate another national red wave in 2022 if they cannot quickly unite and expand their coalition.